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A bipartisan panel appointed by the US Congress has concluded that the United States should expand its conventional forces, strengthen its alliances, advance its nuclear weapons modernization program and prepare for possible simultaneous wars with Russia and China.

The report by the panel, called the "Strategic Posture Commission," comes at a time of tensions with China over Taiwan and other issues, and heightened disagreements with Russia over the invasion of Ukraine.

The report, which examines the country's long-term strategic policies, examined in detail the threats and security challenges from China, Russia, North Korea and Iran in 2027-2035.

The report contradicts President Joe Biden's view that the current US nuclear capacity is sufficient to deter the combined forces of Russia and China.

A senior official involved in drafting the report declined to say whether the panel's intelligence briefings showed that China and Russia (among themselves) are cooperating on nuclear weapons.

"Our concern ... is that there could be some form of eventual coordination between them, which would lead us to this two-war structure," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The findings are said to upset the current US national security strategy of "winning one war while deterring the other". This would require massive increases in defense spending.

"While recognizing the budget realities, we believe the nation must make these investments," said Democratic Party Madelyn Creedon, former deputy director of the US nuclear weapons watchdog, and retired Republican Senator Jon Kyl, vice chairman of the panel, in the foreword to the report.


"President Joe Biden and Congress must explain to the American people that higher defense spending is a small price to pay for preventing a nuclear war involving the United States, China and Russia," Kyl said at a briefing where the report was released.

"The structure of the arsenal still exceeds what is necessary to deter an enemy nuclear attack and keep a sufficient number of enemy targets at risk," the Arms Control Association said.

"The United States and its allies must be prepared to deter and defeat both enemies simultaneously. The US-led international order and the values it upholds are at risk from the authoritarian regimes of China and Russia."

The panel, which brings together six Democrats and six Republicans, was created by Congress in 2022 to assess long-term threats to the United States and recommend changes to the country's conventional and nuclear forces.

The panel endorsed the Pentagon's prediction that China will rapidly expand its nuclear arsenal to 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035, the first time the United States will face a second major nuclear-armed rival.


The 145-page report stated that the threats from China and Russia will reach serious proportions between 2027 and 2035, and that "decisions must be made now to ensure the nation is prepared."

The 30-year US nuclear weapons modernization program, which began in 2010 and is projected in 2017 to cost about $400 billion through 2046, must be fully funded to upgrade all warheads, delivery systems and infrastructure in time, the report said.

Other recommendations from the commission included deploying more tactical nuclear weapons in Asia and Europe, developing plans to deploy some or all of the spare nuclear warheads, and producing more B-21 stealth bombers and new Columbia-class nuclear submarines beyond the numbers currently planned.

The panel also called for increasing the "size, type and posture" of US and allied conventional forces.

Without such measures, the report emphasized, the US would "probably" have to increase its reliance on nuclear weapons.

It also cited North Korea's "rapid progress" towards having enough intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to overcome the US missile defense system.