As state primaries continue in the United States, the presidential race in November is likely to be a rematch of the 2020 elections.
The political climate and opinion polls suggest that the 2024 presidential race is likely to be between current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
According to a recent CNN poll commissioned by SSRS, Trump is ahead of Biden by a small margin.
The poll also reveals voters' "conflicting feelings" about the leading candidates.
The vast majority of Democrats and Republicans say they would be happy to see their party's nominee win such a rematch.
However, a (albeit small) number of voters express a desire for someone other than Biden and Trump, who are both highly likely to be the nominee.
Overall, 49 percent of registered voters said they would support Trump if the choice between the two were made today, while 45 percent said they would support Biden and 5 percent said they would vote for someone else.
Biden's support among traditionally Democratic-leaning blocs such as young voters and people of color has not increased since the fall. Likewise, voters under 35 are evenly divided. Among them, 49 percent support Biden and 46 percent support Trump.According to the poll, among non-white voters, Biden leads Trump with 57 percent and Trump with 35 percent.
It shows that in the event of a presidential race between the two, most voters on both sides tend to favor Biden over Trump.
In the event of a presidential race between the two, the majority of voters on both sides tend to vote heavily against Trump.
In other words, 68 percent of Biden supporters say they voted for Biden not because of their support for Biden but because they oppose Trump.
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According to the results of the poll, 59 percent of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, compared to 55 percent for Trump. 66 percent also say Biden does not deserve re-election.
Americans overwhelmingly view Trump's views and policies as "too extreme" (63 percent), while most view Biden's views and policies as "generally mainstream" (61 percent).In the poll, voters were also asked whether they would want to see another name from the party they are closest to as an independent candidate if Biden becomes the Democratic nominee and Trump becomes the Republican nominee.
The poll also asked voters whether they would want to see another independent candidate from the party they are closest to if Biden were the Democratic nominee and Trump were the Republican nominee.
Forty-three percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they would like to see another Democrat as an independent candidate in a Biden-Trump matchup, compared to 40 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
Opinion polls consistently show that the idea of a third party or independent presidential candidate is popular, but in reality candidates outside the two parties rarely garner as many votes as pre-election polls suggest.
Republicans say Trump is likely to win a second term as president.
While 88 percent of pro-Republican voters say Biden has a chance to win the presidency if he is the nominee, only 29 percent think he has a chance.
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Among Democrats, concerns about Biden are centered on his advanced age. When asked about their biggest concern about him as a presidential candidate, nearly half, 46 percent, cite his age. 5 percent worry about Biden's mental competence or sharpness, while 2 percent express concern about his ability to handle the job.
A new concern about Biden has emerged in recent months. Five percent of respondents said Biden's handling of the war between Israel and Hamas was their biggest concern.
Democratic voters under the age of 45 are more likely than older voters to cite this as their biggest concern. 9 percent of voters under 45 mention Israel, compared to 3 percent of older pro-Democratic voters.
The CNN poll was conducted between January 25 and 30 among a national sample of 1,212 randomly selected adults. The polls were conducted either online or over the phone with a live interviewer.
