Based on the course of the US and global economy as a price-determining factor, Nansen predicted four different scenarios for the future of the crypto market.
First, the researchers consider the scenario in which employment and growth remain healthy in the US economy with inflation reaching the 2 percent target, and believe that the Fed will easily cut interest rates in this case. According to Nansen's report, in the most favorable "soft landing" scenario, the Bitcoin price could increase between 20 and 50 percent.
Secondly, commenting on the scenario in which inflation moves up again despite the absence of a recession in the US economy, Nansen stated that the markets are not in such an expectation. According to experts, the combination of inflation and growth could cause the BTC price to fall between 10 and 60 percent, testing the lows of 2022.
The possibility of a "hard landing" in the US economy
The crypto research firm described the third scenario that will affect the Bitcoin price as a "limited contraction". Nansen underlined that although recession is rare in the US, some macro data (bond yield spread, manufacturing indices) point to a recession. According to the third scenario, the US economy could enter a recession despite a decline in inflation to 2 percent.
Nansen expects the price of Bitcoin to return to the $42,000 level after briefly falling up to 20 percent in a limited recessionary environment likely to be experienced with a decline in inflation.
Researchers commented that in the last scenario, where the American economy faces a much more serious brake, Bitcoin could lose at least 60 percent of its value.
