In a post on X, Bags discussed Bitcoin's (BTC) pre-halving declines. According to the analyst, Bitcoin has acted in a similar scenario in its three previous halving cycles.

The analyst stated that Bitcoin fell 38 percent from its all-time high in all three previous pre-halving cycles. He stated that if a similar scenario occurs, Bitcoin could fall as low as $ 45,500.

Previous data shows $ 45,500 for Bitcoin

Crypto analyst Bags examined three different halving periods and found that all three fell 38 percent from their all-time highs before the halving.

Bags, who took the all-time high of $ 73,500 that Bitcoin reached in this cycle, said that the target zone would be $ 45,500 as a result of the 38 percent decline rate.

A similar comment came from banking giant JPMorgan. JPMorgan claimed that Bitcoin could fall as low as $ 42,500 after halving.

However, Bags bases its own decline forecast on the pre-halving period. Because previous data evaluates pre-halving declines. Previous data also points to a strong bull run after the halving.

Responding to Bags, an X user said that US spot Bitcoin ETFs have kept the market strong in a way that was not the case in previous cycles. The analyst noted that each of the previous bull cycles had its own catalyst, yet they did not prevent the decline.

According to the analyst, a correction is inevitable, even if there is a net inflow of money into spot Bitcoin ETFs.